SIMAK 18 Hasil Survei Terbaru Capres Anies, Ganjar dan Prabowo Subianto
SEJUMLAH lembaga survei terus merilis hasil temuan mereka, terkait elektabilitas bakal calon presiden yang diprediksi akan turut serta dalam Pilpres 2024. Berikut ini 18 survei terbaru yang dirangkum detak24com dari CNBC Indonesia sejak awal Juli 2023.
Laboratorium Ilmu Politik Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang (UMM)
Laboratorium Ilmu Politik Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang (UMM) merilis hasil survei terkait elektabilitas calon presiden (capres). Hasilnya, Prabowo Subianto unggul dibanding Ganjar Pranowo dan Anies Baswedan di Jawa Timur.
Dari hasil survei itu diketahui bahwa elektabilitas Prabowo di Jatim berada di angka 37,3%. Jumlah itu berbanding tipis dengan elektabilitas Ganjar. Calon yang diusung PDIP itu memiliki elektabilitas 34,2%. Sedangkan Anies Baswedan di posisi terbawah dengan perolehan 7,1%.
Survei ini dilakukan pada periode 5-10 Juli 2023 di 80 kelurahan dan desa terpilih di 31 Kabupaten/Kota di Jawa Timur dengan metode multistage random sampling dan margin of error +-3,5%. Dari setiap Desa/Kelurahan itu dipilih acak RT/ RW dengan jumlah proporsional. Total responden sebanyak 800 orang.
Koordinator Tim Survei Laboratorium Ilmu Politik UMM Ruli Inayah Ramadhan menyampaikan bahwa selain elektabilitas, survei juga mengukur tingkat kepopuleran bakal calon presiden.
Lagi-lagi, kepopuleran tertinggi masih dipegang oleh Prabowo Subianto. Selanjutnya baru disusul oleh Ganjar Pranowo, kemudian Anies Baswedan.
“Untuk popularitas di urutan pertama Prabowo dengan persentase 90,5% responden mengenal, disusul Ganjar dengan perolehan 83,9%. Sedangkan Anies Baswedan ada di urutan keempat dengan perolehan 71,3% setelah Gubernur Jawa Timur Khofifah Indar Parawansa,” katanya, Kamis (10/8/2023).
Lembaga Survei Political Statistics (Polstat)
Polstat Indonesia merilis elektabilitas terbaru bakal calon presiden (bacapres) 2024 mendatang. Hasilnya, bacapres Gerindra Prabowo Subianto berada di posisi teratas, disusul bacapres PDIP Ganjar Pranowo, dan bacapres NasDem Anies Baswedan.
Survei ini dilakukan periode 28 Juli hingga 4 Agustus 2023 di 34 Provinsi Indonesia. Populasi survei ini adalah seluruh WNI berusia di atas 17 tahun serta memiliki KTP. Jumlah sampel yang diambil 1.200 responden melalui teknis pengambilan sampel secara acak bertahap (multistage random sampling).
Margin of error +- 2,8% pada tingkat kepercayaan sebesar 95 persen. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan menggunakan teknik wawancara tatap muka dengan tenaga terlatih.
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