SIMAK 18 Hasil Survei Terbaru Capres Anies, Ganjar dan Prabowo Subianto
Tren elektabilitas Prabowo di Jatim disebut Baihaki terus meningkat. Elektabilitasnya sudah mencapai 33,7% padahal pada akhir tahun 2022 lalu elektabilitas Prabowo Subianto masih di angka 21,9%.
Calon lainnya yakni Ganjar dan Anies juga mengalami kenaikan. Namun, kenaikannya tidak setinggi Prabowo. Di mana Ganjar pada akhir 2022 lalu di angka 20,1% kini menjadi 30,5%.
“Sementara Anies Baswedan akhir 2022 lalu di angka 16,7% sekarang menjadi 23,3%,” tambahnya.
Kenaikan elektabilitas Prabowo, lanjut Baihaki, salah satunya terkait isu-isu ‘endorse Jokowi’ yang memengaruhi publik. Apalagi, Jatim saat Pilpres 2019 lalu merupakan basis suara Jokowi.
“Ada faktor itu (endorse Jokowi). Faktor besar lain dari temuan kami adalah pemilih Nahdliyin yang sangat besar di Jatim cenderung memilih Prabowo dibanding dua nama lain,” jelasnya.
“Selain itu responden menilai Prabowo pemimpin yang tegas dan meyakini Prabowo orang yang komitmen menjadi penerus program Jokowi,” tambahnya.
Dalam responden yang mengaku merupakan warga NU, Baihaki memaparkan sebanyak 32,06% memilih Prabowo. Kemudian sebanyak 30,01% memilih Ganjar Pranowo dan Anies Baswedan sebesar 17,4%. Masih ada 20,53% responden belum menentukan pilihan.
Survei ARCI dilakukan pada 4 Juli-15 Juli 2023. Survei menggunakan metode multistage random sampling dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 1.250 responden yang tersebar proporsional di 38 kabupaten/kota Jatim. Survei ARCI memiliki margin of error sebesar 2,8% dan tingkat kepercayaan sebesar 95%.
Berikut elektabilitas tiga cepres di Jawa Timur versi survei ARCI:
1. Prabowo Subianto 33,7%
2. Ganjar Pranowo 30,5%
3. Anies Baswedan 23,3%.
Belum menjawab/belum menentukan 12,5%
Institute for Democracy and Strategic Affairs (Indostrategic)
Indostrategic merilis hasil survei nasional bertajuk “Keberlanjutan Vs Perubahan: Dinamika Peta Politik Menuju Pemilu 2024”. Seperti dikutip dari bahan paparan yang diterima CNBC Indonesia, Jumat (14/7/2023), Indostrategic menjalankan survei nasional dengan metode multi-stage random sampling yang melibatkan sampel 1.400 responden di 38 provinsi yang meliputi 84 dapil di seluruh Indonesia, dengan Margin of Error (MoE) 2,62%.
Survei ini dilakukan melalui face to face interview, dengan periode pengerjaan survei lapangan pada tanggal 9-20 Juni 2023. Salah satu pertanyaan yang diajukan kepada responden adalah “Menurut Ibu/Bapak/Saudara, siapakah sosok calon presiden (capres) yang didukung oleh Presiden Jokowi?”. Hasilnya adalah sebagai berikut: Ganjar Pranowo: 74%
Prabowo Subianto: 22,4%
Airlangga Hartarto: 2,2%
Lainnya: 0,3%
TT/TJ: 1,1%.
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